Researchers in Russia on Thursday announced the development of a programme capable of calculating the characteristics of outburst floods.
Scientists at Saint Petersburg State University said the innovation can help predict failures in earthen dams at reservoirs and lakes. It can also forecast outbursts from mountain glacial lakes formed by moraine deposits comprising rock debris, clay and pebbles left by glacier movement.
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According to the university, the system is designed to provide early warnings of sudden water release, helping to minimise potential destruction. The researchers explained that unstable glacial lakes may drain abruptly, releasing large volumes of water due to rapid warming or extreme rainfall.
They added that reservoirs are equally vulnerable, particularly during unusually heavy rains that can erode embankments and trigger flooding.
The programme can estimate key parameters of a possible dam breach, including the timing of failure, peak water discharge, total flood volume and the size of the breach opening. These predictions are based on inputs such as dam dimensions, elevation above the water level, soil composition and other relevant factors.
“The uniqueness of our solution lies in the fact that we have developed a method to account for the heterogeneity of earthen dams, since soil exhibits different from hydro-physical properties at different points.
“We also considered two main failure mechanisms: overtopping and erosion of a filtration channel within the dam body,” said the project lead, Associate Professor at SPbU, Galina Pryakhina.
The programme is intended to analyse potential breaches in water bodies located in remote mountainous regions where hydrological monitoring stations are absent.
Previously, calculations for such areas required field data collected during expeditions or the use of satellite imagery.
The researchers tested the programme using three lakes where outbursts of floods have already occurred: Bashkara in the Caucasus, Maashey in the Altai, and Nurgan in Mongolia.
In the near future, the team plans to add a module for calculating water inflow, allowing simulations to account for precipitation and glacier melt contributions.
This is expected to improve the accuracy of predictions regarding the behaviour of entire lake systems.
NAN
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